puppy tests - indicative or BS?? - Page 2

i think some of the examples given here are imo a nothing more than selection bias, how do you know that any one of the other pups you might have taken would not have worked out the same? that pup might have just clicked with yr lifestyle and personality and might have been a crap adult in another home or the other way around. how do you know that when you picked the pup for sport and LEO and they did well would not have done just as well in the other venues....selection bias and a few other major problems with yr methodology to make any general conclusions about the effectivenes of puppy tests to predict adult behaviour.

the volhard tests are what i gather pretty much laughed out of existence to many serious breeders and trainers. the military has tried a lot of those things including mysterious bio-sensor secret squirrel stuff. still they mostly buy green dogs from a broker for better success ratios?

i wish testing was true and reliable - it would save a lot of heart break but i can't see the evidence is there at this point.

i asked my breeder who always keeps a pup back from every litter how he chooses it, first he decides what gender and then he takes whatever pup is left after everyone else picks there!!!

of course the biggest test these days for most people is the pup with the biggest head/chest/body/bone and whatever color they prefer.

please breeders more input, this could be valuable info.

i respect that breeders do or should know the pups/line better than anyone else but personally for me as a buyer i will not deal with a breeder that picks the pups for the buyer, actually passed on world class litter cos i was not allowed to pick my own puppy and went for a theoretically lesser litter cos the breeder ran a simple first paid first to pick, i like that.

having said that cos i am so happy with the dog i picked and with the breeders after sales service i will not even bother to look personally at the next litter i will just tell the breeder to send me a pup,

I know plenty of excellent breeders that can accurately describe the traits of their pups before 7 weeks.  They can tell you exactly the best job for the dog and how the dog will perform.  The breeder I got Boomer from was exactly right about his temperament at 7 weeks.  She was almost like a fortune teller describing how his temperament would be if I wanted him for sport or Police work compared to his siblings.  I do my own puppy tests and so far I have gotten exactly what I have wanted with each pup.  A skilled breeder, whether they breed for show or work can pick out the promising pups at a very early age.  They can clearly see the differences in each pup and realize the potential the pups will have.  I absolutely believe that puppy tests are a good indicator of future performance when the pup is paired with a good handler.

Slam, do you use one of the named (eg Vollhard) tests, or do you have your own "Slamdunc" puppy test? If your own, can you provide some color as to what you do?

As Slam said, "a skilled breeder whether it is show or work can pick out a promising puppy very early"...... There are many factors that determine that, and testing can be a factor, but nothing is absolute....including not believing in the validity of testing....lol

I am not saying that nothing can be dtermined by running a few "tests" past a perspective pup. Of course you can learn a few things that way, but,
When do you run this by the pup, after you just woke him up, after he has running around playing with the littermates, before he ate, after he ate?
Is the reaction going to be the same before, after or during the above mentioned?
Which test is going to be given, what are the stress factors you are looking for?
I've had people that technically know 'nothing' come and say something like, I read somewherre that "IF I do the hokey-pokey and turn myself arout' while holding the pup.......he should react like this or that, and, IF I put my left foot in. ..he will react like this....
MOST good breeders know their pups and for the most part, I let peoplee pick their own pup.
Sometimes, I will not. IF I see the super pup of the litter, the one I will hold back til last, UNLESS and UNTIL the right person for that particular pup

I agree that pup's temperament and suitability can be accurately determined by a breeder, if the breeder knows what they're seeing. But the person receiving the pup can make a great dog out of a pup with potential, and a another person can destroy any possibility of a pup turning out well.
Also, I think a lot has to do with self fulfilling prophecy......if you get a pup that you've been told has certain potential, ie, tracking, and that is what you focus on, then chances are that is what you will develop in the pup.
A good trainer can succeed with what they've got, unless it's an absolute basket case airhead.

A good puppy will tell you what he is capable of by watching his body language in
any situation. Watch the ears and the tail. Show me the pup that walks down the 
street with his head and tail up high thinking he owns the world, and I will bet that
unless some jack@ss screws the pup up, he'll turn out pretty darn nice. The puppy
that is calm and self assured, no unneeded hyper activity etc, all are signs of natural
intelligence as well as just plain old confidence and good solid nerve. 

Sorry, i have a tough timw with this i pod sometimes.
I am not at all trying to say that those experienced in "true" German Shepherds cannot get a good idea what they are looking at in a pup, and running their own little tests. BUT,
The average person that read this "ways to test" a puppy article and then go to a "disreputable" breeder, and one that knows nothing about their pups temperments, will gain nothing.
The breeder that cares about theur dogs and the buyers "best interest" is the best judge of the right dog, for each situation.