Assessing a pups potential at 8 weeks - Page 1

For those of you who are breeders, what % of the dogs that you asses at 8 weeks to be fit for a particular role (SAR, sport, LE, etc) end up correct for the role at 2 years of age? Nothing scientific required, just a thumb-in-the-wind calculation. Just curious as to how much can a pup really be assessed at that age.  Are there certain roles that have a better success rate than others? Say, is it easier to assess what pups will be better suited for sport vs assessing what pups will be best suited for personal protection work? Assuming, of course that the owner of the pup does their part and also trains/cares for pup properly.
 

I assess at 49 days. it seems to work well for us.  But an old time breed of conformation animals says assess for conformation at 3 days, three weeks, three months then put a bag on their heads until they are 3 years old.  he swears he can tell you the conformation at 3 days of age.  they just look like blobs to me at that age BUT he is almost always bang on....

Brynjulf, I have also heard that about conformation at a very young age.... although I heard at birth (but basically the same as three days old).... I am with you though, they look like blobs to me, I really cannot see much lol  But I have heard of others who swear that you can see their structure at that age and know what they will turn out like.  

thanks for sharing, though not particularly concerned with conformation, just with working ability. Any opinions there?

So far? 100% when accessed at 8 weeks old, usually at 6 weeks I'll make my picks and keep those to run on for K9
and if there are too many, then make sure those that show the most potential go into working homes.

Melissa

Having too many is never a bad thing and goes to show that you had a really good breeding.

I'm not saying having too many is a bad thing, but there are only so many I can keep and raise properly while giving
my adults the attention and training they deserve, ya know?

Melissa

Oh no, I know exactly what you mean.  Im saying your doing a good job breeding when you have a good selection like that.

I would guess that if you are breeding good quality litters and placing them in quality hands, your % should be very high. In my experience, the good ones usually pan out. To me it is hard to miss on a seven week pup that is showing excellent drive, grips and nerve. The ones that surprise me are the ones that you write off. Not that they are bad, but that they haven't matured or developed quite as fast. You see them down the road and you are pleasantly surprised. Usually if a pup is showing good things at this age, they aren't going to disappear, but a bad handler can rob them. You can assess Pups all day long, but if they don't go to the right hands, all bets are off.

Read Malcolm Willis!  He reports in scientific depth on the predictability of physical and behavioral traits by genetics.  He also reports on testing.  Unfortunately, breeding and 49 day testing combined only explain (statistically) a minority of the dog's behaviors at maturity.  But that doesn't mean you should ignore the test results.  In 30 years, I have never found a natural retriever who did not retrieve somewhat at 7 weeks and I have never encountered a hard dog who was soft at 7 weeks.  Some things do seem to appear early enough to evaluate.

When people do Volhard type tests, however, they often blow it because they are nice.  (It happens to all of us.)  We see a pup acting vulnerable and we can't help acting encouraging and less threatening to induce a more upbeat, confident behavior.  If that works, you have shown that the puppy is hierarchy sensitive enough to read your body language -- and that's something worth knowing -- but not that he's really confident.  If you, like me, just don't think it right to drag out a test that is intimidating to a pup, stop!  But then don't kid yourself about the pup.  That pup may be avoidant as an adult, constantly signalling you after 5 minutes work that its time to go back to the SUV.  And you took that pup out of the perfect family pet situation where she belonged!  So test -- well -- and listen to your results.  

But accept that there are still many dice to roll before s/he is grown.