I've found something inspiring in this mess of mudslinging - Page 3

Well Bee I was weaned onto a soda bottle so I have my doubts of ever kicking the soda habit.

Yeah, I know. I keep seeing the evils of diet soda all over FB. I can't give it up yet, either. And my coffee comes with its original caffeine, too. I am trying to drink more water, see how that goes.

You did successfully quit smoking though, didn't you? That is very admirable, truly.

Guess you will keep your mortal status, to the end! ☺️😇😋

Working with and having worked with women and children (and some men) who have been the victims of sexual assault, the reasons many don't come forward are complex and understandable.  Latest DOJ statistics, between 0.5-3% of total number of rapes and sexual assaults are actually reported and of those reported, less than 10% are deemed to have enough "perfect" evidence (substantial injuries from violence that will make the jury feel sorry for the victim) to bring to court and less than 5% of those perpetrators will actually spend any time incarcerated.   The reasons some have cited for not reporting their sexual assault can range from fear of retaliation, fear of not being believed, fear that they some how caused the assault, fear of losing their job, fear of losing their housing, the list goes on.  1 in 6 women has been the of victim of an attempted rape or completed rape.  30-35% of victims of sexual assault and rape are under the age of 12. Children between the ages of 12 to 17 are 65-70% of those sexually assaulted or raped.  3 out of 4 rapes and sexual assaults are perpetrated by someone the victim knew and in many cases trusted (which exacerbates the reasons for NOT reporting).  Majority of those who perpetrate sexual assault or rape are over age 30 and white males.  Every 2 minutes an American is sexually assaulted.   I work with traumatized survivors, I hear the reasons they don't report it and once someone else is brave enough to report the rape or sexual assault, then many women feel less frightened to report it, sadly for every woman that reports a sexual assault once someone else has come forward, at least 10 times that number will never come forward.  To continue to down play sexual assault, rape, and the mindset that women are overreacting to the culture is to continue to give these survivors of sexual assault and rape reasons to never come forward. No one wants to realize that rape and sexual assault can happen to ANYONE between the ages of 3 months and 100 years old.  No one can be 100% sure how they will react until they being assaulted.

It doesn't help when a judge gives a rapist a few months in jail as was done with that swimmer from Stanford or 60 days in jail as was done with the Montana man who raped his 12 year old daughter.

Noitsyou - so true and so aggravating.  Add to that the research I just read on the treatment of men and women by the medical community. 

- Women are generally dismissed, silenced, denigrated for their illness/pain/injury until they are proven to be as bad off as the man in for the same complaints, especially with abdominal pain.  Abdominal pain can be life threatening for women in many cases (e.g.. ovarian cyst torsion, ectopic pregnancy, list goes on). 

- Women generally wait x2-x4 as long for pain management as do men with similar complaint of pain.  They are routinely given a smaller dosage.

- Women generally wait x2-x5 as long for a physician in the ED than men with similar complaints.

- Women are generally examined less thoroughly than men and OB/GYN is often overlooked as a source of the complaint.

- Women are pathologized as requiring mental health consult x10 when compared to men with similar complaints.

No wonder women are seen as seeking revenge, asking for it, making it up, over exaggerating, etc. when it comes to sexual assault........

I know from personal experience after retiring as a firefighter and a paramedic that rape or sexual assault is written as "alleged" under chief complaint such as "patient alleges sexual assualt" or "patient alleges rape" yet chest pain, assault during a robbery, or a fight is written for men as "patient reported assault during robbery attempt" or "patient complains of injuries sustained during physical altercation". 

Unfortunately, there is the fact that there are false reports of sexual assault and rape. Making oneself blind to that fact isn't going to correct the gender bias, either.

Whenever a high-profile account of alleged campus sexual assault comes crashing down – such as Rolling Stone's gang-rape accusation – activists predictably fall back on the claim that only 2 percent of rape accusations are false.

This isn't accurate. First, the 2 percent figure refers to false reports made to the police. Making a false police report carries a penalty, which exists to deter people from doing so (although sometimes that penalty isn't enforced, such as with the Duke Lacrosse rape hoaxer). No such penalty exists on college campuses. (Indeed, even the accuser in the Rolling Stone article, though proven to have lied, did not face any punishment from the school.)

Not having that penalty is meant to make accusers feel more comfortable coming forward, although it's difficult to see how being punished for lying would make truthful victims fearful. Regardless, a lack of consequences makes it easier for student accusers to come forward and punish fellow students who may have hurt them or with whom they had a previous regretted encounter that has come to be seen as assault.

But let's look at that 2 percent figure as if it applied to all cases. If it were true that 2 percent of rape reports were proven to be false, that would indicate that 98 percent were proven to be true, and therefore, accusers should be believed as a matter of default.

The 2 percent figure is the low end of a range (usually up to 8 percent or 10 percent) from multiple studies conducted over the past few decades. The Washington Post, in an article fact-checking a graphic about rape statistics, mentioned a study from the "Making A Difference" Project, which the National Center for the Prosecution of Violence Against Women claimed was the "only research conducted in the U.S. to evaluate the percentage of false reports made to law enforcements."

Assuming that's true (it's not), it would be the only relevant study to use as a basis for false accusations. But that study actually found 7.1 percent of rape reports to be "unfounded/false." But one can't assume that means 92.9 percent of reports were true. The study found an additional 8.5 percent to be classified as "unfounded/baseless." End Violence Against Women International, which produced the MAD study, defined baseless reports as "those that do not meet the elements of the offense and those that were improperly coded as a sexual assault in the first place." This includes sexual assault reports in which a "follow-up investigation reveals either that no crime occurred or that some other type of crime was actually committed (or attempted)." In other words, a false report of rape.

That would bring the number of false rape reports up to 15.6 percent. Another category of rape reports in the MAD study (making up 17.9 percent of the cases) was "closed as an informational report." This categorization occurred when a person reported a sexual assault that did not meet the criteria of a crime. It doesn't mean the person made up the entire story, but what they reported wasn't a crime. This wouldn't be counted as false, but it also isn't in the "true" category, as a crime wasn't actually committed. "Suspended/inactivated" constituted another 28.6 percent of the cases studied by MAD. These are the cases in which there isn't enough evidence to say whether a crime actually occurred.

The next category was "exceptionally cleared," making up 17.9 percent of the total cases studied. EVAW defines these cases as those where an offender is identified, there is enough evidence for arrest but something "beyond the control of law enforcement precludes arresting," such as the death of the suspect or a lack of victim cooperation after the identification.

The final category, 20 percent of the total cases, was those "cleared by arrest." This would seem to indicate that at least 20 percent of rape reports were true, but remember, an arrest does not equal guilt. Another chart in the MAD study has the breakdown of outcomes after the case was referred to prosecution. A whopping one-third (33.2 percent) of cases were rejected by the prosecution, another 20.9 percent were dismissed with all charges dropped and 2.3 percent were dismissed but the charges weren't dropped. Two percent of the cases referred to prosecutors resulted in a trial and a "not guilty" finding. Another third (33.2 percent) resulted in a guilty plea, and just 5.9 percent went to trial and received a "guilty" finding (2.6 percent were classified as "other").

So what does this all mean? Francis Walker, who runs an exceptional blog taking down statistics such as the MAD study, has done the math. He found that from all the statistics listed above, just 7.8 percent of rape reports in the MAD study could be classified as true.

"From this we can see that 39.1% of the cases end in either a guilty verdict or a guilty plea. Multiplying that by the 20% of police cases that result in arrest, we are left with the 7.8% I used at the start of my first post," Walker wrote. "Even this isn't a good number to use though. If a confession that a report is false isn't enough to classify the report as false, then the corollary is that a guilty plea isn't enough to classify a case as true. After all, it would not be difficut [sic] to imagine a scenario where, for any number of reasons, someone pleads guilty to a crime that they didn't commit. 20% x 5.9% leaves us with a 'true' rate of just 1.2%. Even if we decide to be generous and include not just the 20% arrested, but also the 17.9% exceptionally cleared, the number still only goes up to 2.2%."

From all of this one could determine that 15.6 of reports could reliably be determined as false, another 17.9 percent weren't actually crimes and just 1.2 percent (or 2.2 percent) could be reliably determined as true. The remainder would fall into a "we'll never know for sure" category.

Perhaps only 2 percent of rape reports are false. That doesn't necessarily mean that 98 percent are true. But assuming that is the case, one can't possibly know which category a report falls into until after a proper investigation (which would include due process). And to pretend that false reports don't happen just because they are rare minimizes the impact such reports have on those falsely accused.

And beyond all of this, none of this data can be applied to reports of campus sexual assault. There is no data available on the number of campus sexual assault accusations that turn out to be false, as it hasn't been studied. And again, without a penalty associated with false police reports, false accusations made to campus administrators are likely to increase.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/even-if-false-rape-reports-are-rare-they-shouldnt-be-ignored/article/2568250

 

@ Beetree - According to FBI and DOJ statistics, the percentage of false reports are extremely small (2%).  To be considered a false rape accusation, it must be PROVEN false such as an iron clad alibi to be included.  This does NOT include rapes that could not be proven to have occurred which is an entirely different beast than saying it was false.  Unfounded, Unsubstantiated, or Baseless just means there was not sufficient evidence to meet THE CRITERIA NEEDED to proceed with criminal prosecution, it does NOT mean it never happened or was false. Misconceptions about false reporting rates have direct, negative consequences and can contribute to why many victims don't report sexual assaults (Lisak et. al., 2010).  The article you provided was proven to have deliberately misconstrued the data.  Most women do NOT falsely accuse because of the viciousness of the smear and the investigation (which many times is much more thorough than of the investigation of the perpetrator of the rape), and the vehemence of the justice system in seeking retribution.  2% false, as in PROVEN false means 98% of those reported rapes have occurred..........

 

Something isn't adding up, that's for sure. Where is the proof that the article I posted debunking your claims as fact, has in fact been debunked, itself? Your last statement is too simple to be true because it denies the existance of variables, but only uses simple math, so it can seem true.

Why didn't all these women do the obvious, and protest right then and there? Especially the random strangers, what could they fear more than the abuse? That is what doesn't make sense, whether we care to argue about correct percentages of false sexual abuse accusations, or not.

A false allegation crime involves persons reporting a fabricated offense that has occurred against them to a law enforcement agency. Both men and women commit these crimes; however, women perpetrate the majority of them. A limited number of studies have focused on false allegation adult crimes, with the majority of research addressing cases of rape and to a lesser degree stalking.¹

These offenses occur throughout America every year. Unfortunately, they waste substantial investigative resources—needed for legitimate cases involving real victims—before authorities can identify them as false allegations. And, as noted in the quote from the crisis center worker, these false allegations can severely affect communities and the people who live and work there. Worse, they can make it harder for law enforcement agencies and citizens to take real victims of crime seriously.

Offender Motivations

Perpetrators of false allegation crimes have various underlying motivations that fall into one or more categories. Investigators may encounter cases involving more than one motivation.²

• Mental illness/depression
• Attention/sympathy
• Financial/profit
• Alibi
• Revenge

A significant life problem (e.g., marital, financial, employment) that the offender does not have the skills to resolve drives the motivation. Many perpetrators have multiple life difficulties. Rather than seeking appropriate assistance from family members, coworkers, clergy members, or mental health professionals, offenders develop a self-victimization plan. These individuals may realize temporary relief from their life problems due to immediate attention and support from family, neighbors, and coworkers. And, more often than not, false allegation offenders do not consider the serious, long-term law enforcement investigation or significant media coverage that reveals the truth. In the long run, offenders are worse off than before the false allegation crime report and even may face prosecution.

Typically, female offenders want to gain attention and sympathy and will falsely allege offenses, such as interpersonal violence (e.g., sexual assault), more likely to achieve that result. While the desire for attention and sympathy also can motivate males, they tend to opt for nonsexual offenses, such as physical assault or attempted murder.³ Offenders who falsely allege more impersonal crimes, like theft or vandalism, more likely will have financial or profit motives. And, in cases where the perpetrator has no motive or incentive, mental health issues may prove significant.

https://leb.fbi.gov/2012/september/false-allegations-of-adult-crimes

It's funny how people ask "why now?" when talking about these claims as if it is something out of the ordinary. I'm not saying they are all true but people seem to forget Bill Cosby. That wasn't that long ago and it was a very high profile case. Interestingly, Cosby made comments about his behavior when it came to women in his comedy routine. This echoes Trump making comments that, although not made in public, were made public.

And it's rather simple why a woman might not come forward with the truth if lying were punishable. If she tells the truth and isn't believed then that could be considered lying.

As far as the whole 2% vs 98%, something to consider is that the court does not find someone guilty or innocent (innocent meaning the accusation was false) but rather guilty or not guilty. I also don't think that the 7.8% figure is accurate and the person who came up with it doesn't believe it himself. There is more to determining what that figure really is than just the statistics used and it isn't possible to get that missing data. I don't know what the exact numbers are when it comes to false reports, no one does, but the fact is that there are accusations made which are true. If only 20% of reports result in arrest then that is a reflection on the nature of the crime and how it isn't easy to have evidence that a crime was committed.

The thing with Trump is that it isn't one woman. If the % of accusations that are false is higher than 2% and it is applied to each accusation individually that is one thing but what about when there are multiple accusations? In other words, the odds that a single accusation is false are not the same as the odds of multiple accusations all being false. According to the statistic given, 7.8%, if 100 accusations are made then 7.8 are true. But we all know that in reality none, or all, could be true. We also know that the .8 doesn't make sense in reality.

The other problem is that rape and sexual assault are being used interchangeably. Trump is not accused of rape so false reports of rape stats are not applicable. The issue isn't whether or not Trump has forced himself on women inappropriately, possibly illegally, he has admitted he does, but rather why is it these particular women waited so long to come forward. Also, it is not that they are making false accusations when it comes to his behavior as again, he has admitted to the behavior, but whether or not out of all the women he has grabbed (and by his own admission there are women out there who he has done this to) these particular women are among them. People who say a woman would speak up immediately ignore the reality that they don't always do so. The fact that none of the women Trump has touched came forward immediately proves that. And if these particular women are lying it means that the real victims are still out there and have chosen to remain silent. This would prove that women don't always report every sexual assault. Then again, who knows if Trump hasn't had to settle some of these things out of court and the victims are legally bound to remain silent.

"This would prove that women don't always report every sexual assault." How very true !

Had I 'reported' (meaning where/to whom ? Police ? Medics ? Child protection ? Teachers, or just friends ?) every unpleasant incident that has happened to me over a lifetime, I would have spent half my life controlled by and emeshed in making statements / trying to prove, on a 'he said/she said' basis, that some behaviour or other had actually happened and had not been imagined by me, for some reason (money ? '15 minutes of fame' ? revenge ?), and that to a largely unsympathetic 'establishment'.

I was 'kiddie-fiddled' age 10; I was 'groomed' and had under-age sex with somebody married and much older in my teens; I have been 'date raped'; I've been forced to fellate some bastard of another date ON THE STREET; had my tit grabbed at by some yob passing IN THE STREET (more than once); been co-erced into sex with someone who was a partner at the time (but did not long remain one afterwards). Not by anybody famous, however.

We simply DON'T report stuff. We don't think we will be believed. We don't think anyone will care. We don't think there is any point.

Today, post Savile etc, where there has been SOME change of attitude to all this stuff, maybe I would have reasoned that there was more point to putting in a complaint at some point. I actually just feel glad I am no longer in that age category (ie very young to not quite so 'young') where women are subjected to the excesses of the male ego in this way. Not to say old ladies NEVER get sexually hurt, but that IS statistically more unlikely.