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by Blitzen on 30 September 2012 - 17:09
The facts......
Q: Do statistics in a chain e-mail give an accurate "report card" of President Obama’s first two years?
A: Not exactly. The author made many minor mistakes and some major omissions in describing the terrible economic conditions he attributes to the president. FULL QUESTION The latest in crunchy chain e-mail goodness. Please validate or debunk. Thanks.
Two years ago on January 20th, Barack Obama was inaugurated as president of the United States. Are you better off today than you were two years ago? Numbers don’t lie, and here are the data on the impact he has had on the lives of Americans.
⬏ FULL ANSWER This one-sided compilation of statistics is drawn — selectively — from an article that appeared on the American Thinker blog on Jan. 20, 2011, under the headline "Report Card on Obama’s First Two Years" by K.E. Campbell. An e-mail version, containing an additional comment about the national debt figures — and omitting a number of the American Thinker statistics that could be seen as favorable to Obama — has been circulating widely since then. We have received a steady stream of inquiries about its accuracy. We contacted the editor of American Thinker, Thomas Lifson, who said he would pass a message on to Mr. Campbell for us, but we have not heard from Campbell.
The original article presents what it calls "data on the impact [Obama] has had on the lives of Americans," showing changes since the president took office Jan. 20, 2009. From these, the anonymous author of the chain e-mail has made a lopsided selection of 24 indicators. The numbers in the e-mail include higher gasoline and oil prices, higher unemployment, higher numbers of bank failures, a higher level of poverty, lower household incomes and a rising national debt. Many Minor Mistakes It’s true that nearly all those indicators were worse on the second anniversary of Obama’s inauguration than they were when he took office. Our research turns up numerous mistakes and inaccuracies in the original article, but for the most part, they are insignificant.
For example, we found:
■The price of regular gasoline was up 69.26 percent, not 69.6 percent as claimed.
■The price of gold rose 57.7 percent, not 60.5 percent.
■Real median household income fell 1.05 percent, not 0.7 percent.
■The national debt rose 32.27 percent, not 32.2 percent.
Many of the mistakes were biased against Obama. For example, the author cited a 21 percent decline in the Conference Board’s “Present Situation Index,” an indicator of how consumers feel about their current economic situation. But that was based on where the index stood in December. Figures released a few days after the blog post was published showed a big jump in January, and so it is now clear that this index showed consumers feeling slightly better about the economy at the end of Obama’s first two years than they did when he took office.
But the biggest mistake we found was actually in Obama’s favor. The author claimed that the number of bank failures rose 17 percent, but we found the actual increase was 493 percent (using the time period chosen by the author). The author was writing prior to release of January’s unemployment figures, so his statistics fail to give Obama credit for the improvement those figures showed. When doing a full, two-year comparison, we found:
■The unemployment rate was 15.38 percent higher, not 23.7 percent.
■The number of unemployed persons was 15.7 percent higher, not 24.7 percent.
■The number of long-term unemployed (those out of work 27 weeks or longer) was 131 percent higher, not 146 percent.
The author says "numbers don’t lie," yet he sometimes just got them wrong. He claimed that the Heritage Foundation ranked the U.S. at No. 5 in its "Economic Freedom World Rankings" when Obama took office, for example. Actually, the ratings released the week before Obama was sworn in had the U.S. at No. 6.
The author asked, "Are you better off today than you were two years ago?" But he sometimes used figures that are ambiguous. He claimed the price of corn rose 78 percent and the price of soybeans rose 42 percent. (They actually rose slightly less than that.) But either way, those figures are quite favorable to corn and soybean farmers — not to mention rural bankers and makers of farm equipment. Furthermore, the prices that consumers pay for food have risen quite slowly during the past two years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rise in food prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index was up by less than 1.5 percent in January, compared with the month of Obama’s inauguration. Major Omissions
The e-mail author omits other economic statistics that would put Obama’s tenure in a more favorable light. For example, he or she makes no mention of the following: ■Obama inherited the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. It began in December 2007 and ended a few months after Obama took office, in June 2009, according to economists who make up the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
■The stock market has roared back since Obama took office. The S&P 500 Index increased nearly 59 percent — rising from 805.22 on Jan. 20, 2009, to 1,280.26 two years later. (The American Thinker article mentioned big increases in the S&P 500 and in other stock-market indicators as well, but the author of the viral e-mail omitted them.)
■A total of 4.4 million jobs had been lost before Obama took office, including 820,000 the month he was sworn in. And although employment continued to slide after the economy bottomed out, and has been agonizingly slow to recover, more than 1 million jobs have been added since payrolls hit their low point early last year. Some other indicators given by the American Thinker author — but left out of the viral e-mail — show overall inflation at under 2 percent per year and a surge in the Consumer Confidence Index. It’s not our job to say whether Obama has done a good job or a bad job. But this viral e-mail "report card" is one-sided and filled with errors. For what it’s worth, here is a corrected "report card" giving more accurate figures for the indicators cited in the e-mail, footnoted with precise citations of sources. Following our usual practice, we also provide hyperlinks to our online sources to allow readers to verify the numbers for themselves.
Q: Do statistics in a chain e-mail give an accurate "report card" of President Obama’s first two years?
A: Not exactly. The author made many minor mistakes and some major omissions in describing the terrible economic conditions he attributes to the president. FULL QUESTION The latest in crunchy chain e-mail goodness. Please validate or debunk. Thanks.
Two years ago on January 20th, Barack Obama was inaugurated as president of the United States. Are you better off today than you were two years ago? Numbers don’t lie, and here are the data on the impact he has had on the lives of Americans.
⬏ FULL ANSWER This one-sided compilation of statistics is drawn — selectively — from an article that appeared on the American Thinker blog on Jan. 20, 2011, under the headline "Report Card on Obama’s First Two Years" by K.E. Campbell. An e-mail version, containing an additional comment about the national debt figures — and omitting a number of the American Thinker statistics that could be seen as favorable to Obama — has been circulating widely since then. We have received a steady stream of inquiries about its accuracy. We contacted the editor of American Thinker, Thomas Lifson, who said he would pass a message on to Mr. Campbell for us, but we have not heard from Campbell.
The original article presents what it calls "data on the impact [Obama] has had on the lives of Americans," showing changes since the president took office Jan. 20, 2009. From these, the anonymous author of the chain e-mail has made a lopsided selection of 24 indicators. The numbers in the e-mail include higher gasoline and oil prices, higher unemployment, higher numbers of bank failures, a higher level of poverty, lower household incomes and a rising national debt. Many Minor Mistakes It’s true that nearly all those indicators were worse on the second anniversary of Obama’s inauguration than they were when he took office. Our research turns up numerous mistakes and inaccuracies in the original article, but for the most part, they are insignificant.
For example, we found:
■The price of regular gasoline was up 69.26 percent, not 69.6 percent as claimed.
■The price of gold rose 57.7 percent, not 60.5 percent.
■Real median household income fell 1.05 percent, not 0.7 percent.
■The national debt rose 32.27 percent, not 32.2 percent.
Many of the mistakes were biased against Obama. For example, the author cited a 21 percent decline in the Conference Board’s “Present Situation Index,” an indicator of how consumers feel about their current economic situation. But that was based on where the index stood in December. Figures released a few days after the blog post was published showed a big jump in January, and so it is now clear that this index showed consumers feeling slightly better about the economy at the end of Obama’s first two years than they did when he took office.
But the biggest mistake we found was actually in Obama’s favor. The author claimed that the number of bank failures rose 17 percent, but we found the actual increase was 493 percent (using the time period chosen by the author). The author was writing prior to release of January’s unemployment figures, so his statistics fail to give Obama credit for the improvement those figures showed. When doing a full, two-year comparison, we found:
■The unemployment rate was 15.38 percent higher, not 23.7 percent.
■The number of unemployed persons was 15.7 percent higher, not 24.7 percent.
■The number of long-term unemployed (those out of work 27 weeks or longer) was 131 percent higher, not 146 percent.
The author says "numbers don’t lie," yet he sometimes just got them wrong. He claimed that the Heritage Foundation ranked the U.S. at No. 5 in its "Economic Freedom World Rankings" when Obama took office, for example. Actually, the ratings released the week before Obama was sworn in had the U.S. at No. 6.
The author asked, "Are you better off today than you were two years ago?" But he sometimes used figures that are ambiguous. He claimed the price of corn rose 78 percent and the price of soybeans rose 42 percent. (They actually rose slightly less than that.) But either way, those figures are quite favorable to corn and soybean farmers — not to mention rural bankers and makers of farm equipment. Furthermore, the prices that consumers pay for food have risen quite slowly during the past two years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rise in food prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index was up by less than 1.5 percent in January, compared with the month of Obama’s inauguration. Major Omissions
The e-mail author omits other economic statistics that would put Obama’s tenure in a more favorable light. For example, he or she makes no mention of the following: ■Obama inherited the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. It began in December 2007 and ended a few months after Obama took office, in June 2009, according to economists who make up the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
■The stock market has roared back since Obama took office. The S&P 500 Index increased nearly 59 percent — rising from 805.22 on Jan. 20, 2009, to 1,280.26 two years later. (The American Thinker article mentioned big increases in the S&P 500 and in other stock-market indicators as well, but the author of the viral e-mail omitted them.)
■A total of 4.4 million jobs had been lost before Obama took office, including 820,000 the month he was sworn in. And although employment continued to slide after the economy bottomed out, and has been agonizingly slow to recover, more than 1 million jobs have been added since payrolls hit their low point early last year. Some other indicators given by the American Thinker author — but left out of the viral e-mail — show overall inflation at under 2 percent per year and a surge in the Consumer Confidence Index. It’s not our job to say whether Obama has done a good job or a bad job. But this viral e-mail "report card" is one-sided and filled with errors. For what it’s worth, here is a corrected "report card" giving more accurate figures for the indicators cited in the e-mail, footnoted with precise citations of sources. Following our usual practice, we also provide hyperlinks to our online sources to allow readers to verify the numbers for themselves.
by Blitzen on 30 September 2012 - 17:09
Claiming they want a smaller government could be thought of as irony considering the GOP feels as if they should be able to monitor every pregancy of every female citizen of the US.
by vonissk on 30 September 2012 - 19:09
The link I am about to post proves that the GOP is definately grasping at straws and digging the hole deeper by the day. No way can I copy and paste an audio message so if you are interested in what the phone volunteers are telling people them you just have to click on the link to listen.
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/09/29/gop-phone-volunteer-obama-is-a-socialist-muslim-and-hell-take-away-medicare-audio/
This lady sounds like a white lady and goes to prove that goofiness comes in all colors of skin.
by BabyEagle4U on 01 October 2012 - 03:10
Romney CAN NOT win without the votes from Ron Paul supporters. There is just toooooo many of us. At every event I've ever been present, we out number Mittens supporters at least 7 to 1. NO ONE can deny it at the events. WE surround him and his. WHERE is he getting all his votes on mainstreet ? Or is he ?
What the MSM dishes out to the public is a tunnel vision view of Mittens supporters. LMAO
All those stories warning about that crazy uncle Ron Paul being the only one in the GOP's dysfunctional presidential primary able to defeat Obama is starting to ring increasingly true. About time. Grab a life vest Mittens, your ship is going DOWN !!!!
Ron Paul is the "key" to the Republican Party and he has been for over 3 decades. Smart Americans know this. Traitors to this Republic know this.
There is NO WAY Mittens will beat Obama in votes. Absolutely NO chance in hell. YOU phucked up Mittens, you phucked up. Watcha gonna do Mittens, steal the election from Obama ? Kidnap his bus like you did ours ? Continue your FUNDED local algorithmic flip voting ? (lol BUSTED !! - at least not on the local level you WILL NOT) Or worse ? Everyone is born ignorant but you must work hard to remain stupid !!!
Ron Paul 2012 !!
What the MSM dishes out to the public is a tunnel vision view of Mittens supporters. LMAO
All those stories warning about that crazy uncle Ron Paul being the only one in the GOP's dysfunctional presidential primary able to defeat Obama is starting to ring increasingly true. About time. Grab a life vest Mittens, your ship is going DOWN !!!!
Ron Paul is the "key" to the Republican Party and he has been for over 3 decades. Smart Americans know this. Traitors to this Republic know this.
There is NO WAY Mittens will beat Obama in votes. Absolutely NO chance in hell. YOU phucked up Mittens, you phucked up. Watcha gonna do Mittens, steal the election from Obama ? Kidnap his bus like you did ours ? Continue your FUNDED local algorithmic flip voting ? (lol BUSTED !! - at least not on the local level you WILL NOT) Or worse ? Everyone is born ignorant but you must work hard to remain stupid !!!
Ron Paul 2012 !!
by vonissk on 01 October 2012 - 03:10
You Go BE!!!!!
http://kdvr.com/2012/09/28/colorado-gop-dumps-firm-with-ties-to-voter-fraud/
Here's another one about the games that Mitty baby is trying to play. I honestly have to give the CO GOP credit for their honesty and integrity. In this video the girl lies about who she works for and is only trying to register Romney supporters. Not only that this firm she is working for has been associated before with voter fraud. Mitty Baby and them hired them anyway and had them change their company name. WooHoo more straws to grasp at and the hole gets a little deeper every day............
BE I am not for Ron Paul but neither am I against him--I have learned more about him through you this round then I ever knew. But I do know the GOP treated him like crap at Tampa and they should be ashamed................ Love that statement about how hard Mitty Baby works at being stupid. Yes he does.
Oh and what about this one--poor Ann is so worried about the emotional strain this is putting on him. I don't have the link close by right now but I read it yesterday. Good Grief Charlie Brown if you can't handle the heat right now what if you got elected? We already know your true colors--that's what we need is you to have a traumatic emotional breakdown while in office. So back to the heat if you can't handle it best to get the heck out of the kitchen.................I just went and found the link.
http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/nm/ann-romney-biggest-fear-is-for-mitt-s-mental-well-being
http://kdvr.com/2012/09/28/colorado-gop-dumps-firm-with-ties-to-voter-fraud/
Here's another one about the games that Mitty baby is trying to play. I honestly have to give the CO GOP credit for their honesty and integrity. In this video the girl lies about who she works for and is only trying to register Romney supporters. Not only that this firm she is working for has been associated before with voter fraud. Mitty Baby and them hired them anyway and had them change their company name. WooHoo more straws to grasp at and the hole gets a little deeper every day............
BE I am not for Ron Paul but neither am I against him--I have learned more about him through you this round then I ever knew. But I do know the GOP treated him like crap at Tampa and they should be ashamed................ Love that statement about how hard Mitty Baby works at being stupid. Yes he does.
Oh and what about this one--poor Ann is so worried about the emotional strain this is putting on him. I don't have the link close by right now but I read it yesterday. Good Grief Charlie Brown if you can't handle the heat right now what if you got elected? We already know your true colors--that's what we need is you to have a traumatic emotional breakdown while in office. So back to the heat if you can't handle it best to get the heck out of the kitchen.................I just went and found the link.
http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/nm/ann-romney-biggest-fear-is-for-mitt-s-mental-well-being
by SitasMom on 01 October 2012 - 05:10
still waiting for answers.........
Who is better off now than they were 6 years ago?
That being said, big governemnt and big spending doesn't work........so why sign up for more of it?
Who is better off now than they were 6 years ago?
That being said, big governemnt and big spending doesn't work........so why sign up for more of it?
by Keith Grossman on 01 October 2012 - 12:10
"Who is better off now than they were 6 years ago?"
I am. If you aren't, maybe you should do something yourself to improve your life.
I am. If you aren't, maybe you should do something yourself to improve your life.
by BabyEagle4U on 01 October 2012 - 14:10
* "Who is better off now than they were 6 years ago?" *
This whole country is better off now than 6 years ago, 6 years ago only 1% of the population knew the Federal Reserve was a private bank. 6 Years ago only 1% of the population knew that "inflation is theft" or the word "hyperinflation" or "mortgage backed securities" yet they see it everyday at food markets, gas pumps and the housing market etc. 6 years ago only 1% of the population knew GOLD and SILVER is the ONLY "dollar" legal in America. 6 years ago Girl Scouts didn't get busted selling cookies door to door, 6 years ago dogs were not used as target practice, 6 years ago kids did not get fined for having lemonade stands on their front lawns. 6 years ago dairy farmers were not raided by federal agants because they sell RAW milk in a State where RAW milk is still legal. 6 years ago people were not fined are put in jail because they grew too many veggies in their garden. 6 years ago only 1% of the American population knew democracy is illegal in America. Article 4 Section 4.
6 years ago only 1% of the population knew who Congressman Ron Paul is.
Now over 60% of Americans know all of the above. And during the Mittens/Obama debate .. that 60% will increase.
It's only a matter of time now, and if you care to know what I think, I am proud of most my fellow Americans and I must thank Obama for waking them up. I dunno if that was his tactic all along or what .. but he clearly did what NOONE in the white house could do since well, I almost wanna say Thomas Paine but that is quite the stretch.
Either way, the current tread on the US Constitution and "dollar" in America along with the current ranks of political treason is all coming to a head, and of course in the end, "we the people" of America once again, will be the victors.
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-Samuel Adams
This whole country is better off now than 6 years ago, 6 years ago only 1% of the population knew the Federal Reserve was a private bank. 6 Years ago only 1% of the population knew that "inflation is theft" or the word "hyperinflation" or "mortgage backed securities" yet they see it everyday at food markets, gas pumps and the housing market etc. 6 years ago only 1% of the population knew GOLD and SILVER is the ONLY "dollar" legal in America. 6 years ago Girl Scouts didn't get busted selling cookies door to door, 6 years ago dogs were not used as target practice, 6 years ago kids did not get fined for having lemonade stands on their front lawns. 6 years ago dairy farmers were not raided by federal agants because they sell RAW milk in a State where RAW milk is still legal. 6 years ago people were not fined are put in jail because they grew too many veggies in their garden. 6 years ago only 1% of the American population knew democracy is illegal in America. Article 4 Section 4.
6 years ago only 1% of the population knew who Congressman Ron Paul is.
Now over 60% of Americans know all of the above. And during the Mittens/Obama debate .. that 60% will increase.
It's only a matter of time now, and if you care to know what I think, I am proud of most my fellow Americans and I must thank Obama for waking them up. I dunno if that was his tactic all along or what .. but he clearly did what NOONE in the white house could do since well, I almost wanna say Thomas Paine but that is quite the stretch.
Either way, the current tread on the US Constitution and "dollar" in America along with the current ranks of political treason is all coming to a head, and of course in the end, "we the people" of America once again, will be the victors.
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-Samuel Adams
by SitasMom on 01 October 2012 - 14:10
Good for you Keith, glad to know.
Many are not.
Middle class income had dropped $3000 and gasoline, food, and everything except home prices has gone up. QE3 puts more paper money into circulation, which causes each dollar to be worth less and the effect is to make prices to go up even farther. Yet wages are not going up.
People recieving unemployment is still over 8% and hundreds of thousands have given up looking for jobs and are not counted in the unemployment numbers.
Big government and uncontrolled spending has to stop. A federal budget has not been passed in over 1000 days....our contry's credit rating has slipped to AA-, which raises the intrest rate paid on all that credit we're collecting.
I'm just saying, the last 6 years have been bad for many, many people and if the current adminstration is reelected, we're in for more of the same.
doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity.
by Ninja181 on 01 October 2012 - 15:10
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